BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest money game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good flooring there and it doesn’t matter whether she loses or wins. At the price tag she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and if we could get 4 additional areas to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 with this battle. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at least one 10-point knock down. If this can be from the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can not have much time in the game left. I believe we role with the favored here and toss into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. In addition, I think he’s a live underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I believe we’ve got a good floor here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing since I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this battle and can win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes at a 57 percent precision, and when he is becoming bogged up on the toes I am certain that he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I believe he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I do not think she could win, since she for certain could, and I believe she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d require a finish from her in this struggle to receive 10x that wages and I believe that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she will need FightMetric to rely all her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points which has been contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be enough here to put her at the winning lineup at her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my select forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
Read more: https://www.vo2sport.com/boxing-and-betting/