UFC FN150 Betting Tips & Plays
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Mike Perry Free Breakdown
Perry brings big power on the toes and a durable style to adopt brawls. He can be outmanoeuvred by technical boxers but against the likes of Ponzinibbio, a top competitive striker for the division, he had been very competitive. Perry is powerful from the clinch but his takedown defense is still unproven against a valid grappler. Cowboy could exploit the ground game as he’s underrated wrestling, however, he tends to fight unpredictable gameplans. Getting sucked into brawls is a common issue and here against Perry that might be a significant mistake. He has big power himself but both guys are quite hittable. On the toes it probably favours Perry, at least for the first half of the struggle when he is most dangerous. Start Looking for a back and forth warfare, together with all the durability of Perry which makes the difference — as both men consume serious damage.Andrei Arlovski Breakdown
Arlovski is on a 3 fight losing streak but has been aggressive in most fights going back to his KO loss to Ngannou. At 40 years old he brings a much less aggressive style these days which has lead to six sequential decisions. His output seems to be slowing his exact boxing fashion remains, allowing him to function behind a jab against slower opponents. Sakai is considerably younger so could still be improving, but so far has failed to impress. He is big and yells powerful yet slow singular strikes, with reduced quantity. Primarily a boxer, Arlovski won’t have to worry about too many other weapons.
This is very likely to be a gradual fight using the effective striker coming out on top. Look for Arlovski to prevent exchanges and poke Sakai in the outside or use his wrestling to maintain him against the fence. If he can avoid becoming caught a decision here is probably for the underdog.
Bet = Arlovski in 2.30 (+130) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 3.90 Units.
Virna Jandiroba Breakdown
Jandiroba is a serious BJJ blackbelt making her UFC introduction with a 14-0 record. She’s jiu-jitsu wins over both Claudia Gadelha and Amanda Nunes. Whilst restricted with striking, she’s relentless with takedowns and has a wide array of techniques to get fights to the floor. On top she is very solid, keeping control and attacking subs. That is obviously a massive step up in competition by Invicta against Esparza, a true veteran. Carla is on a losing streak against fellow grapplers and hasn’t displayed great takedown defense to match her wrestling skills. She’d be best to try and keep this fight standing where her improved striking ought to be able to edge out quantity.
Jandiroba is not shown at this level but seems to be the real deal, displaying exceptional technique and composure. Worst case scenario Esparza is able to defend her off back and make scrambles to induce dramatic exchanges, taking us into a close choice. A much better situation is Jandiroba dominating with her top control and securing a unanimous conclusion or finding a submission. An Esparza end is very unlikely. Given the chances and respective paths to success, a shot to the newcomer in even money is good price.